Daily Foreign Exchange Update for May 5, 2026

Spot Rates * USDCAD spot rate: 1.3610 - 1.3615 (as at 8:05am PST) * Asia: 1.3611 to 1.3625 * Europe: 1.3603 to 1.3620 * North America: 1.3605 to 1.3625

Technical Support / Resistance * S2 1.3510 * S1 1.3550 * R1 1.3650 * R2 1.3700

Key Economic Data Releases: - CAD Exports: 72.77B (prev 67.06B) - CAD Imports: 70.99B (prev 72.17) - ISM services PMI: 53.6 (prev 54) - JOLTS job openings: 6.86M (prev 6.92M)

Important events we're watching this week: * May 6, Canada, Ivey PMI * May 6, USA, ADP employment change * May 7, USA, Challenger job cuts * May 8, Canada, Net change in employment * May 8, USA, Non-farm payrolls

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD is stuck in a bit of a holding pattern this morning, hovering in the low 1.36s after a pretty uneventful overnight session that saw the pair trade in a tight range. The Loonie is marginally firmer, helped by a softer U.S. dollar backdrop and a gradual improvement in risk sentiment, with fair value estimates continuing to drift lower toward the low 1.34s. At the same time, oil prices remain elevated, even with a modest pullback, which is offering underlying support to CAD, particularly as higher prices should feed into stronger Canadian exports and a narrower trade deficit. Still, geopolitics continue to muddy the waters, with tensions in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping a floor under the USD and preventing a cleaner move lower in the pair. It is very much a tug of war, with neither side gaining decisive traction, leaving USD/CAD marking time as it waits for the next meaningful headline or data catalyst.

From a technical standpoint, the broader bias still leans modestly bearish, with resistance now building in the 1.37 area while a cluster of support sits closer to 1.35. Near term, today’s trade balance data on both sides of the border, alongside U.S. ISM services and job openings, may provide some direction, though the bigger focus remains on the back half of the week and Friday’s employment data. For now, dips toward the mid 1.35s are likely to attract buying interest, while rallies toward the low 1.37s should run into selling pressure, keeping the pair rangebound in the near term. In other words, it is one of those markets doing an excellent job of going nowhere, right up until it suddenly doesn’t.

• Currently, the TSX is up 0.18% while the DJIA is up 1.13%. * EURCAD has up 0.06% trading between 1.5906 and 1.5944. * GBPCAD is up 0.17% trading between 1.8411 and 1.8473. * JPYCAD is down 0.35% trading between 0.00863 and 0.00866. * Gold is up 1.29% trading between $4,513 - $4,586USD/oz. * Silver has is up 1.47% trading between $72.40 - $74.19USD/oz. * Oil (WTI crude) is down 2.90% trading between $98.66 and $102.42.