Daily Foreign Exchange Update for May 29, 2026

Spot Rates * USDCAD : 1.3770 - 1.3775 (as at 7:59am PST) * Asia: 1.3778 to 1.3787 * Europe: 1.3783 to 1.3815 * North America: 1.3770 to 1.3829

Technical Support / Resistance * S2 1.3700 * S1 1.3770 * R1 1.3830 * R2 1.3870

Key Economic Data Releases: - Canada GDP (March): -0.1% exp 0% prev 0.2% QoQ Q1: 0% prev -0.2% - Canada GDP annualized Q1: -0.1% exp 1.5% prev -1% *revised from -0.6% - U.S. Chicago PMI: 62.7 exp 50.5 prev 49.2

Important events we're watching next week: * June 1, Canada, S&P global mfg PMI * June 1, USA, ISM mfg PMI * June 2, USA, JOLTS job openings * June 3, USA, ADP employment change, ISM services PMI * June 4, USA, Challenger job cuts * June 5, Canada, Net change in employment * June 5, USA, Non-farm payrolls

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3837 up to 1.3870 – its highest level since April 7th. After a 2nd test of 1.3870 stalled, the pairing fell sharply during the North American session to 1.3776 – a 1 week low. USD trade-weighted index initially climbed to a 7 week high before falling 0.60% towards a 2 week low.

Overnight, USDCAD rebounded to 1.3815 and extended up to 1.3829 briefly this morning after weaker than expected Canadian GDP data. However, the trend abruptly changed after Trump announced an end to the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The USD broadly weakened taking USDCAD down to session lows @ 1.3770.

At the end of April, the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25% and 3.75% respectively. Looking out to June 2027, the market is pricing in a 37.3% chance of no Fed interest rate cuts and a 40% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%. There is a 17.5% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. Market pricing indicates a 77% chance of one rate hike by year-end in Canada.

• Currently, the TSX is flat while the DJIA is up 0.67% – both indices near historical highs. * The S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 0.31% and 0.29% respectively – also near historic highs. * EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.6040 and 1.6103 – near 2 week highs. * GBPCAD is flat trading between 1.8508 and 1.8571 – near 1 week lows. * JPYCAD is flat trading between 0.00865 and 0.00868 – near 33 year lows. * Gold has rebounded from 2 month lows - up 1% trading between $4,490 - $4,551USD/oz. * Silver is down 1% trading between $74.65 - $76.41USD/oz – near 2 month lows. * Oil (WTI crude) is up 0.30% trading between $86.85 and $89 – near 5 week lows.