Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 26, 2026

Spot rates: * USDCAD spot rate: 1.4175 - 1.4180 (as at 7:37am PST) * Asia: 1.4190 to 1.4209 * Europe: 1.4177 To 1.4199 * North America: 1.4169 to 1.4184

Technical Support / Resistance: * S2 1.4130 * S1 1.4170 * R1 1.4200 * R2 1.4240

Key Economic Data Releases: - U.S. consumer sentiment index: 49.5 exp 50 prev 48.9 - UoM consumer inflation expectations 1 year: 4.6% exp 4.6% prev 4.6% 5 year: 3.3% exp 3.4% prev 3.4%

Important events we're watching next week: * June 30, Canada, GDP (April) * June 30, USA, Chicago PMI, JOLTS job openings * July 1, Canada, Canada Day * July 1, USA, ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change * July 2, Canada, S&P global manufacturing PMI * July 2, USA, Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.4220 up to 1.4248 re-testing the highs from Wednesday. The pairing subsequently declined to 1.4177 and remained under the 1.42 level for the balance of the session. The USD broadly weakened during the North American session after a slate of U.S. inflation data.. The USD index initially gained 0.3% to fresh 15 month highs before falling 0.5% towards a 3 day low.

Overnight, USDCAD briefly tested the 1.4200 level before falling to 1.4169 this morning. The USD index dropped 0.34% and now trades near a 4 day low. With oil prices retreating sharply (~40%) from the $120/barrel level seen during the early stages of the U.S. – Iran war, the market looks to be pricing in a lower inflation path. U.S. 10 year treasury yields have fallen sharply over the past few weeks from 18 month highs @ 4.66% down to 2 month lows @ 4.37%. Market pricing on U.S. interest rate hikes has also been dialed back.

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% noting the economy was weaker than expected in Q1 with growth looking to rebound in the coming quarters. Market pricing indicates two rate hikes to 2.75% by June 2027. Last week, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75% but was surprisingly hawkish. Looking out to July 2027, the market is pricing in a 36.5% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%, a 25.3% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%, and a 23.1% chance of rates remaining on hold @ 3.75%.

• Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.36% and 0.12% respectively. * The S&P500 and NASDAQ are both flat on the day. * EURCAD is up 0.28% trading between 1.6121 and 1.6207 – near 2 week lows. * GBPCAD is flat trading between 1.8713 and 1.8759 – near 8 month highs. * JPYCAD is flat trading between 0.00876 and 0.00878 – near 33 year lows. * Gold has rebounded from 8 month lows - up 1.28% trading between $3,982 - $4,078USD/oz. * Silver has rebounded from 7 month lows – up 2.42% trading between $55.67 - $59.11USD/oz. * Oil (WTI crude) is down 3% trading between $68.97 and $71.80 – near 4 month lows.