Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 16, 2026

Spot Rates * USDCAD: 1.3985 - 1.3990 (as at 8:30am PST) * Asia: 1.3987 to 1.4000 * Europe: 1.3995 To 1.4018 * North America: 1.3992 to 1.4015

Technical Support / Resistance: * S2 1.3870 * S1 1.3925 * R1 1.4020 * R2 1.4050

Key Economic Data Releases: - CAD Portfolio Investment: Domestic -11.36B Foreign: 46.91B - US Housing Starts: -15.4% (prev -8.5B) - US Import Price Index: 6.7% (prev 4.7%)

Important events we're watching this week: * June 17, Canada, New housing price index * June 17, USA, Retail sales, Fed interest rate / economic projections * June 18, USA, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey * June 19, Canada, Retail sales

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD is holding firm just below the 1.40 mark this morning, with the Canadian dollar giving back a little ground overnight as oil prices ease and broader market sentiment cautiously improves. After briefly testing near six month highs earlier this morning (1.4015), the pair remains well supported, with the Loonie struggling to regain traction as optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement has taken some steam out of crude prices, removing an important tailwind for CAD. Comments from President Trump suggesting a deal could come within days and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen quickly if one is reached have helped calm markets, though traders appear reluctant to fully trust the narrative after several false starts in recent months. For now, USD/CAD continues to sit near the top end of its recent range, with softer oil weighing on the Canadian dollar while geopolitical uncertainty still provides an underlying bid to the greenback. If diplomacy gains real traction, a pullback toward the high 1.38s becomes more realistic, but renewed escalation could make a push through 1.40 feel less like resistance and more like an invitation.

Attention now shifts firmly toward tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, which is the main event risk for FX markets this week. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but the real focus will be on the tone of the statement and whether policymakers lean further into a “higher for longer” message following sticky inflation and lingering energy-related price pressures. Markets have steadily rebuilt expectations for tighter policy into late 2026, which has been an important pillar of recent USD strength. For now, USD/CAD feels like a market hovering near the top of the hill, not quite rolling over, but no longer sprinting higher either, and waiting for tomorrow’s central bank headlines to decide which way gravity wins.

• Currently, the TSX is flat and the DJIA is up 0.92%. * EURCAD is up 0.12% trading between 1.6210 and 1.6257. * GBPCAD is up 0.07% trading between 1.8755 and 1.8801. * JPYCAD is down 0.07% trading between 0.00871 and 0.00874. * Gold is up 0.37% trading between $4,306 - $4,354USD/oz. * Silver is down 0.19% trading between $69.07 - $71.20USD/oz. * Oil (WTI crude) is down 4.41% trading between $75.98 and $80.08.