Daily Foreign Exchnage Update for June 17, 2026

Spot Rates: * USDCAD: 1.4013 - 1.4013 (as at 7:25am PST) * Asia: 1.4000 to 1.4015 * Europe: 1.3980 To 1.4015 * North America: 1.3995 to 1.4015

Technical Support / Resistance: * S2 1.3950 * S1 1.4000 * R1 1.4030 * R2 1.4060

Key Economic Data Releases: - FOMC Rate Decision (2:00pm ET / 11:00am PST): expected hold at 3.50–3.75% | Warsh first press conference (2:30pm ET / 11:30am PST) | US Retail Sales (May): +0.9% m/m exp +0.5% prev +0.4%

Important events we're watching this week: * June 19, USA, Initial jobless claims / Existing home sales

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD is firmer on Wednesday morning, trading near 1.4013 at 7:25am PST and up 16 pips on the day, as markets brace for the most consequential Federal Reserve meeting in years. Today marks new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC decision since being sworn in on May 22, with the rate announcement due at 11:00am PST and Warsh’s debut press conference following at 11:30am PST. The rate decision itself is close to a formality — CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at the 3.50–3.75% range near 97% — but the real focus is on the updated dot plot and Warsh’s tone. Bank of America has flagged that at least three FOMC members may project 2026 rate hikes, a meaningful shift given President Trump publicly stated ahead of the meeting that there was “no reason” to raise rates, having pushed for Warsh’s appointment specifically in hopes of faster cuts. Inflation data has moved against that expectation, with May CPI hitting a three-year high of 4.2%.

Adding to the case for a hawkish hold, this morning’s US retail sales for May surged 0.9% month-over-month, well above the 0.5% consensus and April’s 0.4% gain, with the core control group (which feeds directly into GDP) rising 0.7% — suggesting consumer resilience despite the war in Iran and elevated oil prices. The combination of strong consumer spending and a Fed under pressure to sound tough on inflation is providing a solid USD tailwind this morning. Oil is also firmer, with WTI up 1.41% near $77.20 as markets continue digesting the post-peace-deal normalization in energy markets following last week’s Iran-US agreement. Gold is up 0.29% and silver up 0.67%, a relatively muted reaction ahead of the Fed decision.

For the CAD, today’s session is likely to be dominated entirely by US developments, with no major Canadian data on the calendar. Looking ahead: US initial jobless claims due Thursday, with existing home sales due Friday.

• Currently, the TSX is up 0.24% while the DJIA is flat. * EURCAD is down 0.03% trading between 1.6228 and 1.6263. * GBPCAD is down 0.05% trading between 1.8751 and 1.8805. * JPYCAD is up 0.25% trading between 0.008720 and 0.008747. * Gold is up 0.29% trading between $4,317 - $4,349 USD/oz. * Silver is up 0.67% trading between $69.48 - $70.52 USD/oz. * Oil (WTI crude) is up 1.41% trading between $74.75 and $77.30.