Daily Foreign Exchange Update for May 27, 2026

Spot Rates * USDCAD spot rate: 1.3826 - 1.3827 (as at 7:25am PST) * Asia: 1.3808 to 1.3818 * Europe: 1.3808 to 1.3840 * North America: 1.3820 to 1.3840

Technical Support / Resistance * S2 1.3730 * S1 1.3800 * R1 1.3840 * R2 1.3900

Key Economic Data Releases: - U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (May): due 10:00am ET | New Home Sales (Apr): due 10:00am ET | Richmond Fed Mfg Index: due 10:00am ET

Important events we're watching this week: * May 28, USA, Durable Goods / GDP 2nd release * May 29, Canada, Canada Q1 GDP * May 29, USA, PCE Deflator / Personal Income

Market Spotlight USD/CAD is pushing higher on Wednesday morning, trading near 1.3826 at 7:25am PST and up 0.0018 on the day, as a surge in safe-haven USD demand collides with renewed optimism about a potential US-Iran peace deal that is pulling in opposite directions. The dominant driver overnight was a flurry of Iran deal headlines. Trump posted on Truth Social over the weekend that a comprehensive agreement had been “largely negotiated,” adding “the Strait of Hormuz will be opened,” sparking a sharp rally in risk assets and a selloff in oil and the USD late last week. However, optimism has since faded as the deal remains unsigned.

US Central Command conducted fresh “self-defense strikes” targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, with Iran accusing Washington of “numerous maritime robberies” against commercial ships. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed the US is still awaiting Iran’s formal response to the latest terms conveyed via Pakistani mediators, keeping uncertainty elevated and supporting the USD as a safe-haven. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added further USD support Tuesday in his first major address since being confirmed, warning that the “inflationary shockwave sent across the globe from the Middle East war could persist,” and signalling the Fed has no intention of cutting rates in 2026.

US 10-year Treasury yields are hovering near 4.44% and the 30-year at 5.02%, keeping rate differentials firmly in favour of the USD. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to a record low of 44.8 in May — revised down from 48.2 — with 57% of consumers citing high prices as eroding personal finances, and year-ahead inflation expectations ticking up to 4.8%. Today’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00am ET) and New Home Sales data will be watched for further signs of demand destruction from the sustained energy price shock.

For the CAD, oil is the key variable. WTI crude is down 4.07 on the day near $89.81, pressured by ceasefire deal optimism, and below $90 for the first time since April — a meaningful headwind for the commodity-linked loonie. Gold is also off $71.57, suggesting some risk-on flows despite the geopolitical noise. Looking ahead: US durable goods, GDP second estimate, and PCE deflator are all due Thursday and Friday, with Canada’s Q1 GDP due Friday as the key domestic event of the week.

• Currently, the TSX is up 0.07% while the DJIA futures are up 0.32%. * EURCAD is up 0.24% trading between 1.6063 and 1.6122. * GBPCAD is up 0.11% trading between 1.8570 and 1.8607. * JPYCAD is up 0.03% trading between 0.008642 and 0.008678. * Gold is down 1.58% trading between $4,401 - $4,526 USD/oz. * Silver is down 3.28% trading between $73.27 - $77.51 USD/oz. * Oil (WTI crude) is down 4.33% trading between $87.81 and $93.40.