Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 24, 2026

Spot Rates: * USDCAD spot rate: 1.4230 - 1.4233 (as at 6:45am PST) * Asia: 1.4205 to 1.4238 * Europe: 1.4220 To 1.4245 * North America: 1.4230 to 1.4248

Technical Support / Resistance: * S2 1.4150 * S1 1.4200 * R1 1.4250 * R2 1.4300

Key Economic Data Releases: - U.S. Current Account (Q1): Act -$226.8B Fcst -$217.5B Prev -$221.1B

Important events we're watching this week: * June 25, USA, PCE / Core PCE (May), Final Q1 GDP * June 26, USA, University of Michigan Sentiment (final)

Market Spotlight USDCAD is pushing to fresh multi-year highs on Wednesday morning, as a powerful combination of hawkish Fed repricing, a stronger-than-expected Canada current account deficit, and broad USD strength continues to drive the pair toward levels not seen since November 2022. The dominant macro driver remains the aftermath of Warsh’s hawkish FOMC debut last week. The 2-year Treasury yield surged 13 basis points on June 17 - the largest increase on a Fed meeting day since 2008 - as markets repriced a Fed hike path that now sees nine of 18 FOMC members projecting at least one rate increase in 2026. The US dollar index has surged to near one-year highs above 101, with the stronger greenback creating a significant headwind for gold, which has fallen sharply as the hawkish Fed pivot outweighs softer oil prices from the US-Iran peace deal normalization. Markets have now priced a roughly 69% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting, up from just 29% the week before the FOMC. The US Q1 current account deficit widened to $226.8 billion versus the $217.5 billion expected, reflecting ongoing pressure on the US external position amid elevated energy import costs.

On the Canadian side, TD Economics notes that Canada’s core inflation measures are running at a below-target 1.5% annualized over the past six months - a stark contrast to the US - giving the Bank of Canada room to stay on the sidelines through the rest of the year. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates at its July 15 decision, while the Fed is moving toward a hike, a diverging rate path that structurally supports USDCAD heading into the second half of 2026. Commodities are under heavy pressure, with gold breaking below the $4,000 level for the first time since April. WTI crude is also lower at $70 as the gradual normalization of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to ease the war premium, another headwind for the loonie. The key event risk for the week is tomorrow’s US PCE report and final Q1 GDP, which will be critical in confirming or challenging the aggressive rate hike pricing that has driven the USD rally. A strong PCE reading would validate the hike path, and a soft print could trigger a USD pullback and CAD relief.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.21% while the DJIA futures are down 0.18%. * EURCAD is down 0.22% trading between 1.6125 and 1.6174. * GBPCAD is down 0.14% trading between 1.8704 and 1.8777. * JPYCAD is up 0.15% trading between 0.008787 and 0.008805. * Gold is down 3.16% trading between $3,965 - $4,112 USD/oz. * Silver is down 5.35% trading between $57.98 - $62.37 USD/oz. * Oil (WTI crude) is down 3.74% trading between $70.37 and $73.11.