Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 23, 2026

Spot Rates: * USDCAD spot rate: 1.4195 - 1.4200 (as at 7:55am PST) * Asia: 1.4166 to 1.4193 * Europe: 1.4167 To 1.4186 * North America: 1.4170 to 1.4200

Technical Support / Resistance: * S2 1.4100 * S1 1.4160 * R1 1.4200 * R2 1.4250

Key Economic Data Releases: - S&P Global Mfg PMI: 52.2 (prev 51.5)

Important events we're watching this week: * June 23, USA, S&P global mfg / services PMI * June 25, USA, Core PCE price index, GDP Q1 * June 26, USA, Consumer sentiment, UoM consumer inflation exp

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD continues to push higher this morning, trading at levels not seen since April 2025 as broad-based U.S. dollar strength remains the dominant theme in currency markets. What began as a safe-haven bid during the U.S.-Iran conflict has evolved into a more durable USD rally following last week's Federal Reserve decision, which reinforced expectations that U.S. rates may need to move higher still before inflation is fully brought under control. Markets are now pricing in at least one Fed rate hike before year-end, with some forecasts calling for multiple increases, while expectations for additional tightening from the Bank of Canada remain far more modest. That widening policy gap continues to work against the Canadian dollar, even after stronger-than-expected May inflation data offered the Loonie a brief reprieve. For now, the path of least resistance remains higher for USD/CAD, though the move is increasingly being driven by momentum and positioning rather than an improving Canadian outlook suddenly becoming worse.

Momentum indicators are now at some of the most overbought levels seen since the early stages of the pandemic, and valuation models continue to suggest the Canadian dollar is historically cheap relative to the U.S. dollar. Scotiabank notes that while the trend remains firmly bullish, a break through the low 1.41s could open the door toward the 1.43–1.45 region. At the same time, there is very little in current price action to suggest a meaningful CAD recovery is imminent. As frustrating as it may be for fundamentalists, markets have a habit of ignoring valuation until a catalyst forces them to pay attention. Until there is a material shift in Fed expectations, a meaningful improvement in the Canadian growth outlook, or progress on USMCA negotiations, betting aggressively against USD strength remains a difficult proposition.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.40% while the DJIA is up 0.29%. * EURCAD is down 0.17% trading between 1.6146 and 1.6208. * GBPCAD is down 0.13% trading between 1.8727 and 1.8780. * JPYCAD is up 0.24% trading between 0.00876 and 0.00878. * Gold is down 1.51% trading between $4,091 - $4,198USD/oz. * Silver is down 4.76% trading between $61.51 - $65.19USD/oz. * Oil (WTI crude) is down 1.22% trading between $72.29 and $74.20.