Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 12, 2026

Spot Rates: * USDCAD: 1.3968 - 1.3973 (as at 8:51am PST) * Asia: 1.3961 to 1.3980 * Europe: 1.3970 To 1.3996 * North America: 1.3958 to 1.3994

Technical Support / Resistance: * S2 1.3870 * S1 1.3950 * R1 1.4020 * R2 1.4050

Key Economic Data Releases: - U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index: 48.9 exp 46 prev 44.8 - UoM consumer inflation expectations 1 year: 4.6% prev 4.8% 5 year: 3.4% prev 3.9%

Important events we're watching next week: * June 15, USA, Industrial production * June 16, Canada, Portfolio investment * June 17, Canada, New housing price index * June 17, USA, Retail sales, Fed interest rate / economic projections * June 18, USA, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey * June 19, Canada, Retail sales

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3931 up to 1.4024 – its highest level since November 28, 2025. The trend abruptly changed on reports that the U.S. and Iran had reached a peace agreement. The USD index had been trading near 1 year highs earlier this morning before falling 0.70% towards a 1 week low. USDCAD dropped nearly 75bp towards 1.3950 – erasing the bulk of the USD gains.

Overnight, reports from Iran media claiming a deal has yet to be finalized saw the USD retrace some of yesterday’s losses taking USDCAD from 1.3961 up to 1.3996. The down-trend has since resumed this morning with the broad USD index falling to session lows / 1 week lows. USDCAD has fallen to 1.3958 as oil prices have rebounded after falling 12% this week towards 3 month lows.

Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% noting the economy was weaker than expected in Q1 with growth looking to rebound in the coming quarters. Market pricing indicates two rate hikes to 2.75% by June 2027 in Canada. Next week, the U.S. Fed is expected to hold its key rate @ 3.75%. Looking out to June 2027, the market is pricing in a 36.6% chance of one rate hike to 4.00% and a 27.9% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. There is a 20.2% chance that rates remain unchanged @ 3.75%.

• Currently, the TSX and the DJIA have both rebounded sharply over the past 24 hours towards all-time highs - up 1% and 0.68% respectively. * The S&P500 and NASDAQ continue to rebound from 6 week lows - up 0.36% and 0.10% respectively. * EURCAD is flat trading between 1.6152 and 1.6200 – near 5 month highs. * GBPCAD is flat trading between 1.8708 and 1.8769 – near 5 month highs. * JPYCAD is down 0.13% trading between 0.00871 and 0.00874 – near 33 year lows. * Gold is down 0.50% trading between $4,170 - $4,230USD/oz – near 7 month lows. * Silver is down 1.30% trading between $65.87 - $67.77USD/oz – near 6 month lows. * Oil (WTI crude) is up 0.45% trading between $83.22 and $87.18 – near 3 month lows.