Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 3, 2026

Spot Rates: * USDCAD spot rate: 1.4188 - 1.4193 (as at 7:35am PST) * Asia: 1.4166 to 1.4197 * Europe: 1.4159 To 1.4204 * North America: 1.4188 to 1.4204

Technical Support / Resistance: * S2 1.4100 * S1 1.4150 * R1 1.4200 * R2 1.4240

Important events we're watching next week: * July 6, Canada, BOC Business Outlook Survey * July 6, USA, ISM services PMI * July 7, Canada, Ivey PMI * July 7, USA, ADP employment change 4 week avg * July 8, USA, FOMC minutes * July 9, USA, Jobless claims * July 10, Canada, Net change in employment

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.4224 down to1.4150 – near a 2 week low. The USD saw broad declines after weaker than expected employment data that saw only 57,000 jobs added in June vs expectations of 110,000. Also, prior months data was revised lower by 74,000. The USDCAD rate has tested the 1,4230/40 levels on four separate occasions over the past week. The USD index lost nearly 1% falling from near 15 month highs down towards a two week low.

Overnight, USDCAD rebounded back towards 1.4200 before falling to 1.4159 in early London trade. The pairing has subsequently moved back up towards the 1.4200 level as U.S. markets are sidelined for the July 4th holiday.

Last month, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% noting the economy was weaker than expected in Q1 with growth looking to rebound in the coming quarters. There were recession concerns but this week’s strong GDP reading for April (0.5% vs -0.1% in March) has erased those fears. Market pricing indicates two rate hikes to 2.75% by June 2027. Last month, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75% but was surprisingly hawkish. The market initially repriced interest rate hike probabilities higher but weaker than expected data over the past two weeks has led U.S. yields lower. Looking out to July 2027, the market is pricing in a 34.9% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%, a 28.3% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%, and a 19.1% chance of rates remaining on hold @ 3.75%.

• Currently, the TSX is up 0.92% near all-time highs while the DJIA is closed. * The S&P500 and NASDAQ are both closed today. * EURCAD is up 0.22% trading between 1.6202 and 1.6261 – near 5 month highs. * GBPCAD is up 0.17% trading between 1.8920 and 1.8974 – near 10 year highs. * JPYCAD is flat trading between 0.00878 and 0.00881 – near 33 year lows. * Gold continues to rebound from 8 month lows - up 1% trading between $4,122 - $4,195USD/oz – near 2 week highs. * Silver continues to rebound from 7 month lows – up 2% trading between $60.99 - $62.88USD/oz – near 2 week highs. * Oil (WTI crude) is up 0.20% trading between $68.11 and $69.11 – near 4 month lows.