Daily Foreign Exchange Update for May 4, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD spot rate: 1.3610 - 1.3615 (as at 8:50am PST)
• Asia: 1.3582 to 1.3607
• Europe: 1.3598 to 1.3617
• North America: 1.3601 to 1.3612

Technical Support / Resistance

• S2 1.3510
• S1 1.3550
• R1 1.3650
• R2 1.3700

Key Economic Data Releases:

• No major data releases

Impotant events we're watching this week:

• May 5, USA, ISM services PMI, JOLTS job openings
• May 6, Canada, Ivey PMI
• May 6, USA, ADP employment change
• May 7, USA, Challenger job cuts
• May 8, Canada, Net change in employment
• May 8, USA, Non-farm payrolls

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the ongoing US–Iran standoff, support the USD. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3615, up nearly 0.22% on the day. US-Iran tensions show no signs of de-escalation. Iran’s Fars news agency reported that two missiles struck a US naval vessel near the island of Jask after it allegedly ignored warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to halt. However, a US official denied that any American vessel had been hit, according to Axios. The development follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval initiative dubbed “Project Freedom,” aimed at escorting stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Tehran warned it would attack US forces if they attempted to approach or enter the waterway.

Over the weekend, Washington rejected Iran’s revised 14-point proposal and presented a counteroffer, now under review in Tehran, with nuclear disagreements still unresolved. Trump said in an interview with Israel’s Kan News, “It’s not acceptable to me. I’ve studied it, I’ve studied everything — it’s not acceptable.” Persistent geopolitical tensions are underpinning the USD after its recent weakness.

For the CAD, ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in Oil prices are supporting the commodity-linked Loonie against its major peers, given Canada’s role as a major crude exporter. Still, the Loonie lags the USD, which continues to draw support from its status as a global reserve currency. Meanwhile, rising Oil-driven inflation risks are also fueling hawkish expectations for both the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Higher energy costs have already pushed inflation higher in recent data. Attention now turns to the upcoming employment reports from both the US and Canada, due on Friday, which could provide further direction for monetary policy expectations and the USD/CAD pair.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.39% while the DJIA is down 0.80%.
• EURCAD has up 0.03% trading between 1.5907 and 1.5963.
• GBPCAD is down 0.11% trading between 1.8408 and 1.8489.
• JPYCAD is up 0.12% trading between 0.00864 and 0.00869.
• Gold is down 2.00% trading between $4,513 - $4,636USD/oz.
• Silver has is down 3.00% trading between $72.18 - $75.97USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is up 3.40% trading between $107.41 and $100.19.