Daily Foreign Exchange Update for May 1, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD: 1.3568 - 1.3573 (as at 8:03am PST)
• Asia: 1.3572 to 1.3588
• Europe: 1.3560 to 1.3587
• North America: 1.3550 to 1.3577

Technical Support / Resistance

• S2 1.3510
• S1 1.3550
• R1 1.3610
• R2 1.3670

Key Economic Data Releases:

• Canada S&P global manufacturing PMI: 53.3 prev 50
• U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI: 52.7 exp 53 prev 52.7
• U.S. ISM manufacturing employment index: 46.4 exp 49 prev 48.7
• U.S. ISM manufacturing prices paid: 84.6 exp 80 prev 78.3

Important events we're watching next week:

• May 5, USA, ISM services PMI, JOLTS job openings
• May 6, Canada, Ivey PMI
• May 6, USA, ADP employment change
• May 7, USA, Challenger job cuts
• May 8, Canada, Net change in employment
• May 8, USA, Non-farm payrolls

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3689 down to 1.3580 – its lowest level since March 11th. The USD trade-weighted index dropped 1% towards a 2 month low. Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened in the market aggressively selling USD / buying JPY forcing USDJPY to plunge from 160.70 (2 year high) down to 155.86 – a 2 month low. JPYCAD climbed from 33 year lows @ 0.0085 up to 0.00873 – a 3 week high.

Overnight, the USD saw a slight rebound during the Asia-Pacific session before losing 0.5% towards 2 month lows. USDCAD dropped from 1.3588 down to 1.3560 before extending down to 1.3550 (near 2 month lows) after the worse than expected U.S. ISM data. The forward-looking data saw employment deteriorate further while inflation was higher than expected. USDCAD has rebounded slightly to 1.3770.

Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25% and 3.75% respectively. Looking out to April 2027, the market is pricing in a 60.5% chance of no Fed interest rate cuts and a 23% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%. There is a 12.2% chance of a rate cut to 3.50%. Market pricing continues to indicate nearly two rate hikes by year-end in Canada.

• Currently, the TSX is flat while the DJIA is up 0.35% – near historical highs.
• The S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 0.65% and 1% respectively – also near historic highs.
• EURCAD has rebounded from near 5 week lows - up 0.25% trading between 1.5910 and 1.5983.
• GBPCAD is flat trading between 1.8453 and 1.8523 – near 3 week lows.
• JPYCAD is down 0.15% trading between 0.00863 and 0.00870 – near 2 month highs.
• Gold has rebounded from 1 month lows - up 0.22% trading between $4,559 - $4,660USD/oz.
• Silver has rebounded from 1 month lows - up 2.60% trading between $72.96 - $76.97USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is down 3.3% from near 1 month highs trading between $100.50 and $106.66.