Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 9, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD: 1.3940 - 1.3945 (as at 8:15am PST)
• Asia: 1.3940 to 1.3950
• Europe: 1.3930 To 1.3943
• North America: 1.3920 to 1.3953

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.3850
• S1 1.3900
• R1 1.4000
• R2 1.4050

Important events we're watching this week:

• June 10, Canada, BOC interest rate
• June 10, USA, CPI
• June 11, USA, Jobless claims, producer price index

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD is easing slightly this morning after briefly testing near six month highs yesterday, with heavy selling interest around the 1.3950 to 1.3965 zone once again proving difficult to crack. The modest pullback in the pair appears driven more by broad U.S. dollar softness than any meaningful shift in the underlying story, as markets cautiously lean back toward optimism that a U.S.-Iran agreement could still emerge and eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump suggested a deal could materialize within days, though after several false starts over recent months, traders seem understandably hesitant to fully price in a breakthrough before seeing something more concrete. If tensions genuinely cool and oil supply concerns fade, USD/CAD likely has room to move lower, but if the region flares up again, a retest of the recent highs, and potentially a look at 1.40, remains firmly on the table. For now, the market feels like it is sitting on packed bags waiting for a flight that keeps getting delayed.

Near term, attention turns squarely toward tomorrow’s U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Canada rate decision, both of which could finally shake the pair out of its recent range. Hotter U.S. inflation would reinforce expectations that the Fed may need to keep policy tighter for longer, continuing to support the dollar, while the BoC is widely expected to stay on hold, though policymakers may strike a slightly more cautious tone given softer domestic growth and uncertainty around future USMCA negotiations.

The broader Canadian backdrop remains mixed at best, with recent GDP figures pointing to a technical recession and business investment still struggling, though elevated oil prices continue to offer some support. Technically, USD/CAD still leans constructive overall, but momentum indicators are beginning to flash signs of fatigue after the strong rally since May, suggesting upside may become harder earned unless fresh catalysts emerge. Resistance remains firm near 1.3965, while support begins to build closer to the low 1.39s and mid 1.38s below that.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.20% and the DJIA is down 0.16%.
• EURCAD is up 0.21% trading between 1.6081 and 1.6138.
• GBPCAD is up 0.39% trading between 1.8601 and 1.8704.
• JPYCAD is down 0.09% trading between 0.00869 and 0.00871.
• Gold is down 0.79% trading between $4,278 - $4,363USD/oz.
• Silver is down 2.83% trading between $65.23 - $69.03USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is down 3.59% trading between $86.16 and $89.86.