Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 5, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD: 1.3910 - 1.3915 (as at 7:31am PST)
• Asia: 1.3900 to 1.3912
• Europe: 1.3866 To 1.3909
• North America: 1.3870 to 1.3919

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.3830
• S1 1.3870
• R1 1.3925
• R2 1.3950

Key Economic Data Releases:

• Canada net change in employment (May): 87,800 exp 10,000 prev -17,700
• Canada unemployment rate: 6.6% exp 6.9% prev 6.9%
• Canada average hourly wages y/y: 3.2% prev 4.8%
• U.S. non-farm payrolls: 172,000 exp 85,000 prev 179,000 *revised from 115,000
• U.S. unemployment rate: 4.3% exp 4.3% prev 4.3%
• U.S. average hourly earnings m/m: 0.3% exp 0.3% prev 0.2% y/y: 3.4% exp 3.4% prev 3.6%

Important events we're watching next week:

• June 10, Canada, BOC interest rate
• June 10, USA, CPI
• June 11, USA, Jobless claims, producer price index

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3899 up to 1.3925 – its highest level since April 6th. The pairing fell back to 1.3881 before holding near 1.3900 during the North American session. USD trade-weighted index initially dropped 0.35% before rebounding to hold flat on the day. The index has hovered near 2 month highs over the past two weeks.

Overnight, USDCAD dropped from 1.3912 down to 1.3866 on a broadly weaker USD (USD index fell 0.30%). Job numbers for both Canada and the U.S. were much stronger than expected. Canada added 154,000 full time jobs after losing 46,700 full time jobs in April. The initial reaction saw USDCAD test 1.3900 before falling to 1.3870. However, broad-based USD strength (USD index rebounded 0.60% towards 2 month highs) has USDCAD climbing to fresh session highs @ 1.3919.

At the end of April, the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25% and 3.75% respectively. Looking out to June 2027, the market is pricing in a 32.1% chance of one rate hike to 4.00% and a 30.7% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. There is a 16.1% chance of three rate hikes to 4.50%. Market pricing indicates between two and three rate hikes (to 2.88%) by June 2027 in Canada.

• Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 1.42% and 0.27% respectively – the DJIA having hit fresh all-time highs earlier today.
• The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 1% and 1.85% respectively – near 1-2 week lows.
• EURCAD is down 0.43% from near 7 week highs trading between 1.6071 and 1.6167 – near 1 week lows.
• GBPCAD is down 0.25% from near 4 month highs trading between 1.8616 and 1.8704 – near 1 week lows.
• JPYCAD is down 0.10% trading between 0.00866 and 0.00870 – near 33 year lows.
• Gold is down 2.60% trading between $4,357 - $4,481USD/oz – near 10 week lows.
• Silver is down 6.83% trading between $68.80 - $74.04USD/oz – near 10 week lows.
• Oil (WTI crude) is down 1.50% from near 2 week highs trading between $90.73 and $93.52.