Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 3, 2026
June 3, 2026
USDCAD is surging on Wednesday morning, trading near 1.39 and up 50 pips on the day, touching a fresh multi-week high as a powerful combination of Canadian recession fears, a hawkish Fed, and Iran deal uncertainty drives broad CAD weakness.
Spot Rates
- USDCAD: 1.3895 - 1.3898 (as of 9:15am PDT)
- Asia: 1.3835 to 1.3855
- Europe: 1.3847 to 1.3870
- North America: 1.3865 to 1.3898
Technical Support / Resistance
- S2 1.3800
- S1 1.3850
- R1 1.3900
- R2 1.3950
Key Economic Data Releases
- U.S. ISM Services PMI (May): due 10:00am ET | ADP Employment (May): due 8:15am ET
Important events we're watching this week:
- June 4, Canada, Ivey PMI (May)
- June 4, USA, Initial jobless claims
- June 5, Canada, Canada Employment (May)
- June 5, USA, US Nonfram Payrolls / Unemployment rate
Market Spotlight
USDCAD is surging on Wednesday morning, trading near 1.39 and up 50 pips on the day, touching a fresh multi-week high as a powerful combination of Canadian recession fears, a hawkish Fed, and Iran deal uncertainty drives broad CAD weakness. The dominant domestic catalyst is last Friday’s devastating Canadian GDP report. Statistics Canada confirmed that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1% in Q1 2026, a second consecutive quarterly decline that technically places Canada in recession. Canada has now shed approximately 112,000 jobs in the first four months of 2026, the worst labour market performance since 2009 outside the pandemic. Markets are now pricing the Bank of Canada firmly on hold at its June 10 decision, with rate cut pricing beginning to creep back onto the table for later in 2026.
On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran ceasefire remains unsigned and increasingly fragile. Iran was reported to have stopped sending messages to the US through Pakistani mediators, while the reported MOU framework - featuring a 60-day ceasefire extension, unrestricted Hormuz passage, phased removal of the US naval blockade, and limited sanctions relief - has not been finalised. Intermittent US self-defence strikes on Iranian sites in early June have further strained the ceasefire. The uncertainty is keeping safe-haven USD demand elevated and oil prices volatile, with WTI crude down 3.77% near $95.82 this morning as deal optimism trims the war premium.
On the US side, Fed Chair Warsh has reinforced the hawkish tone, warning that the Middle East inflationary shockwave “could persist,” with markets pricing zero Fed cuts in 2026 and the Fed-BoC rate differential of 1.25-1.50 percentage points firmly supporting USD/CAD. The main event risk for the week is Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls and Canada employment report, both due simultaneously - the combined release has significant potential to drive sharp moves in USDCAD in either direction.
- Currently, the TSX is down 0.13% while the DJIA futures are up 0.18%.
- EURCAD is up 0.33% trading between 1.6042 and 1.6128.
- GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8564 and 1.8662.
- JPYCAD is up 0.13% trading between 0.008653 and 0.008693.
- Gold is down 0.71% trading between $4,401 - $4,526 USD/oz.
- Silver is down 2.73% trading between $73.27 - $77.51 USD/oz.
- Oil (WTI crude) is down 3.77% trading between $94.16 and $99.55.