Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 7, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD spot rate: 1.4190 - 1.4195 (as at 8:45am PST)
• Asia: 1.4200 to 1.4220
• Europe: 1.4202 To 1.4210
• North America: 1.4190 to 1.4220

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.4100
• S1 1.4150
• R1 4.4250
• R2 1.4300

Key Economic Data Releases:

• CAD Ivey PMI 56.2 (prev 58.2)
• CAD May Exports 77.1B Imports: 72.86B
• US ADP: 21k (prev 24.25k)

Important events we're watching this week:

• July 8, USA, FOMC minutes
• July 9, USA, Jobless claims
• July 10, Canada, Net change in employment

Market Spotlight

It was another quiet 24hrs for USDCAD as the Loonie continues to hover around the 1.4200 mark as broader U.S. dollar strength continues to overshadow improving domestic fundamentals. One encouraging development came from the Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey, which showed Canadian businesses remain surprisingly resilient despite this spring's spike in oil prices. Companies continue to expect healthy sales and investment activity, while longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Combined with stronger GDP, inflation and employment data over the past month, the survey reinforces the view that the Canadian economy is proving more resilient than many had expected. Even so, the market has been reluctant to reward the Loonie, a reminder that this remains more of a USD story than a CAD story. That theme is unlikely to change anytime soon. RBC now expects the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026, arguing that improving growth and still-contained core inflation leave policymakers with little reason to move in either direction. Meanwhile, expectations for further Fed tightening continue to provide a solid underpinning for the U.S. dollar, leaving USD/CAD well supported despite Canada's improving economic backdrop. For now, good Canadian data appears to be putting a floor under the Loonie rather than acting as a catalyst for a sustained recovery. Sometimes not losing ground is a win, even if it doesn't feel particularly exciting at the time.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.17% while the DJIA is up 0.29%.
• EURCAD is down 0.20% trading between 1.6217 and 1.6268.
• GBPCAD is down 0.21% trading between 1.8978 and 1.9044.
• JPYCAD is flat, trading between 0.00875 and 0.00878.
• Gold is down 0.46% trading between $4,116 - $4,180USD/oz.
• Silver is down 2.01% trading between $60.30 - $62.16USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is up 3.07% trading between $68.56 and $70.37.