Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 22, 2026

Spot Rates:

• USDCAD spot rate: 1.4083 - 1.4086 (as at 8:30am PST)
• Asia: 1.4080 to 1.4110
• Europe: 1.4080 To 1.4105
• North America: 1.4077 to 1.4095

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.3950
• S1 1.4000
• R1 1.4120
• R2 1.4200

Key Economic Data Releases:

• Trump 50% tariffs on Canada announced Monday Jul 21 (effective ~Aug 19)
• ECB Rate Decision: due tomorrow Jul 23

Important events we're watching this week:

• July 23, USA, ECB Rate Decision
• July 24, USA, US Durable Goods Orders
• July 25, USA, US Flash PMIs

Market Spotlight

USDCAD is easing modestly on Wednesday morning, trading near 1.4084 and down 20 pips on the day. The pair is navigating a complex backdrop with major CAD developments this week. The dominant headline for the Canadian dollar this week is Monday’s announcement by President Trump of new 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian exports. The tariffs are expected to take effect around August 19 and will apply regardless of CUSMA/USMCA compliance. Somewhat offsetting the tariff shock for the CAD - Canada’s June CPI released Monday came in at 2.8% year-over-year, below the 2.9% consensus and down sharply from May’s 3.2% following the brief June ceasefire. RBC and TD Economics both noted the soft CPI supports rates staying unchanged through the rest of 2026, though the new tariff threat adds a fresh layer of growth risk that could complicate that outlook.

The ceasefire that enabled June’s gasoline price drop has also turned around as WTI crude is back up 3.25% near $87.08 this morning, meaning July CPI will likely reverse some of June’s progress and keep the BoC on guard. The yen is holding firm, as markets look ahead to BoJ’s next meeting July 30–31. With Japan bond yields at multi-year highs, traders continue to keep a close eye on the risk of a yen carry trade unwind, a scenario where the narrowing US-Japan rate differential forces leveraged yen-funded positions to be unwound rapidly. The BoJ last hiked rates on June 16 by 25bp to 1.00% and has signalled further moves “at intervals of a few months” toward a 2% neutral rate. Looking ahead, the ECB meets tomorrow July 23 and is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.25%. The Fed meets July 29, where soft June CPI has significantly reduced hike expectations. Key US data this week includes durable goods orders and flash PMIs Friday.

• Currently, the TSX is up 0.97% while the DJIA futures are up 0.31%.
• EURCAD is down 0.04% trading between 1.6065 and 1.6092.
• GBPCAD is down 0.10% trading between 1.8806 and 1.8882.
• JPYCAD is down 0.69% trading between 0.008631 and 0.008647.
• Gold is up 1.66% trading between $4,076 - $4,163 USD/oz.
• Silver is up 2.45% trading between $58.76 - $60.92 USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is up 3.25% trading between $84.51 and $88.58.