Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 20, 2026

Spot Rates:

• USDCAD spot rate: 1.4050 - 1.4055 (as at 9:10am PST)
• Asia: 1.4003 to 1.4021
• Europe: 1.4013 To 1.4052
• North America: 1.4039 to 1.4066

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.3950
• S1 1.4000
• R1 1.4070
• R2 1.4125

Key Economic Data Releases:

• Canadian CPI: -0.4 exp -0.2% prev 1%
• BoC CPI core: 0.1% prev 0.6%

Important events we're watching this week:

• July 21, USA, ADP employment change 4 week avg
• July 23, Canada, Retail sales (May)
• July 23, USA, Initial jobless claims
• July 24, USA, S&P global manufacturing / services PMI

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as softer-than-expected Canadian inflation data and a firmer USD weigh on the CAD, while tensions in the Middle East keep financial markets volatile. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4050, up 0.17% on the day. Headline inflation fell 0.4% MoM in June, compared with market expectations for a 0.2% decline. The drop reversed May’s 1.0% increase and marked the sharpest monthly fall since December 2024. On an annual basis, inflation eased to 2.8% from 3.2%, slightly below the 2.9% forecast. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core CPI rose just 0.1% in June after increasing 0.6% in May, while the annual rate edged down to 2.1% from 2.2%. “Gasoline prices rose at a slower pace year over year in June compared to May, contributing most to the slowdown in overall CPI growth,” Statistics Canada said. However, Oil prices have rebounded sharply since renewed hostilities in the Middle East, reviving inflation concerns. With core inflation still hovering near the BoC’s 2% target, the latest figures support the view that the central bank will maintain its current policy setting. At its July meeting, the BoC raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.3% and said it expects inflation to return to the 2% target by early 2027.

On the geopolitical front, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that intermediaries had exchanged messages with Tehran in recent days and that any negotiations with the United States would be pursued based on Iran's national interests. Oil prices and the USD initially came under pressure as the comments raised hopes of renewed diplomacy. However, the Greenback later recovered all its losses after Reuters reported that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis had declared an immediate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Oil prices, however, stayed lower, adding pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie. WTI crude Oil trades around $82.00, retreating from $84.42, its highest level in more than a month.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.13% and the DJIA is down 0.24%.
• EURCAD is up 0.4% trading between 1.6003 and 1.6049.
• GBPCAD is down 0.01% trading between 1.8823 and 1.8905.
• JPYCAD is up 0.1% trading between 0.00861 and 0.00864.
• Gold is up 0.40% trading between $3,982 - $4,040USD/oz.
• Silver is up 2.22% trading between $55.19 - $57.48USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is down 0.37% trading between $80.38 and $84.74.