Daily Foreign Exchange Update - April 29, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD: 1.3672 - 1.3677 (as at 8:50am PST)
• Asia: 1.3676 to 1.3692
• Europe: 1.3671 to 1.3711
• North America: 1.3671 to 1.3705

Technical Support / Resistance

• S2 1.3580
• S1 1.3625
• R1 1.3740
• R2 1.3800

Key Economic Data Releases:

• BoC interest rate: 2.25% exp 2.25% prev 2.25%
• U.S. durable goods orders: 0.8% exp 0.5% prev -1.2%
• Fed interest rate: 11am

Important events we're watching this week:

• Apr 30, Canada, GDP (Feb)
• Apr 30, USA, Core PCE price index, GDP Q1
• May 1, Canada, S&P global manufacturing PMI
• May 1, USA, ISM manufacturing PMI

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD traded essentially flat on Wednesday, last seen near 1.3680 after a brief whipsaw spike to about 1.3710 was quickly retraced. The session was otherwise subdued, with the pair holding a tight 40-pip band through most of the European morning before a sharp upside burst printed the intraday high; the move was faded inside the same hour. The rejection from the highs leaves a clear upper wick close to the top of the two-day range built off Tuesday's bounce from levels close to 1.3600.

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate target at 2.25% for a sixth straight meeting, matching consensus and extending the pause begun after the October 2025 cut. Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters the Governing Council agreed to "look through" the immediate inflation impact of higher energy prices tied to the Iran war, but cautioned that policy "may need to be nimble" given the wide range of possible outcomes. Under the Bank's baseline scenario in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which assumes Crude Oil falls back to $75 per barrel by mid-2027, "changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small," Macklem said; he warned, however, that if elevated Crude prices bleed into broader inflation, "there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate."

On the US side, the session's whipsaw came after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social shortly after 4 a.m. ET, threatening fresh action against Iran with an AI-generated image of himself holding a rifle in front of explosions and the caption "No More Mr. Nice Guy." Trump wrote that Iran "can't get their act together" and "better get smart soon," adding that Tehran does not know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. The post landed with US-Iran talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz blockade still effectively halting roughly 20% of global oil shipments; WTI Crude pushed above $100 per barrel, supporting the commodity-linked Loonie and capping any sustained move higher in USD/CAD even as the headline briefly bid the safe-haven Greenback. Focus now turns to the Fed decision at 11am PST, with the federal funds rate widely expected to stay in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.64% while the DJIA is down 0.62%.
• EURCAD is down 0.24% trading between 1.5982 and 1.6028.
• GBPCAD is down 0.28% trading between 1.8441 and 1.8503.
• JPYCAD is down 0.44% trading between 0.00852 and 0.00857.
• Gold is down 1.12% trading between $4,509 - $4,610USD/oz.
• Silver is down 2.46% trading between $71.30 - $73.94USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is up 5.53% between $98.49 and $105.99.