Daily Foreign Exchange Update for May 13, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD: 1.3700 - 1.3705 (as at 8:00 am PST)
• Asia: 1.3685 to 1.3710
• Europe: 1.3690 to 1.3710
• North America: 1.3695 to 1.3712

Technical Support / Resistance

• S2 1.3550
• S1 1.3600
• R1 1.3720
• R2 1.3770

Key Economic Data Releases:

• No major Canadian data releases today
• U.S. PPI (Apr): +1.4% MoM, prev +0.6% | PPI YoY: +6.0%, prev +4.3%

Important events we're watching this week:

• May 14, Canada, Manufacturing sales
• May 14, USA, US Retail sales (Mar)
• May 15, Canada, Canada CPI (Apr)
• May 15, USA, Empire State Mfg Index

Market Spotlight

USD/CAD is little changed, trading near 1.3700 as competing forces offset each other. The dominant story this week is the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Trump arrived Tuesday calling the Iran ceasefire “on massive life support,” having rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal on Truth Social: “I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.” This morning Trump added that he does not expect China’s help to end the Iran war, keeping risk sentiment capped and the USD broadly supported.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined the US delegation in Beijing, raising hopes of a broader US-China tech and chip framework. On the inflation front, Tuesday’s US CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year for April — the highest since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus — driven by a 17.9% annual surge in energy costs tied to the Iran war. Core CPI also surprised higher at 2.8% annually vs 2.7% expected. This morning’s US PPI added further pressure, the largest monthly gain since April 2022. Together, the CPI and PPI prints have fully priced out Fed rate cuts for 2026, with odds of a hike by year-end now approaching 40%. US retail sales for April are due tomorrow, with March having surprised to the upside at +1.7% m/m, driven largely by a 15.5% surge in gasoline station receipts.

For the CAD, Friday’s jobs report showed Canada unexpectedly shed 17,700 jobs in April, well below the +25,000 consensus, pushing BoC rate hike expectations firmly to September at the earliest. Canada’s April CPI is due Friday, with markets expecting another acceleration given the sustained energy shock. WTI crude is holding above $100, with EIA crude stocks showing a draw of 2.1M barrels this morning, providing ongoing commodity support to the loonie despite the broader CAD headwinds.

• Currently, the TSX is down 0.19% while the DJIA futures are down 0.28%.
• EURCAD is down 0.21% trading between 1.6019 and 1.6076.
• GBPCAD is down 0.16% trading between 1.8465 and 1.8558.
• JPYCAD is down 0.10% trading between 0.008670 and 0.008688.
• Gold is down 0.68% trading between $4,670 - $4,726 USD/oz.
• Silver is up 0.71% trading between $85.54 - $87.79 USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) is up 1.27% trading between $100.58 and $103.66.