Daily Foreign Exchange Update for June 19, 2026

Spot Rates:

• USDCAD: 1.4170 - 1.4175 (as at 7:23am PST)
• Asia: 1.4134 to 1.4148
• Europe: 1.4134 To 1.4160
• North America: 1.4148 to 1.4176

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.4100
• S1 1.4130
• R1 1.4170
• R2 1.4210

Key Economic Data Releases:

• Canada retail sales (April): 0.5% exp 0.6% prev 0.9% ex autos: 0.1% exp 0.7% prev 1.2% *rev from 1.4%
• Canada retail sales - May advance estimate: 1%

Important events we're watching next week:

• June 22, Canada, CPI
• June 23, USA, S&P global mfg / services PMI
• June 25, USA, Core PCE price index, GDP Q1
• June 26, USA, Consumer sentiment, UoM consumer inflation exp

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.4094 up to 1.4145 – its highest level since April 9th, 2025 – marginally eclipsing the November 5, 2025 high @ 1.4139. The USD index gained another 0.7% to its highest level since April of 2025. The index has now gained 3.5% over the past 6 weeks since falling towards 3 month lows in early May.

Overnight, USDCAD dipped to 1.4134 retesting the Asia-Pacific session lows before climbing to fresh highs @ 1.4160. Canadian retail sales data was mixed with weaker than expected ex-auto data accompanied with a strong advance reading for May. In holiday thinned trade (U.S. markets sidelined for Juneteenth Day) USDCAD has extended up to 1.4176 – approaching levels last seen during the tariff- fueled volatility from spring of 2025. The USD trade-weighted index advanced 0.30% overnight before retracing this morning.

Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% noting the economy was weaker than expected in Q1 with growth looking to rebound in the coming quarters. Market pricing indicates two rate hikes to 2.75% by June 2027 in Canada. Earlier this week, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75% but was surprisingly hawkish. Looking out to June 2027, the market is pricing in a 31.7% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%, a 28.2% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%, and an 18.9% chance of three rate hikes to 4.50%.

• Currently, the TSX is flat while the DJIA is closed. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are also closed for Juneteenth Day.
• EURCAD is up 0.25% trading between 1.6154 and 1.6246 – near 5 month highs.
• GBPCAD is up 0.33% trading between 1.8622 and 1.8744 – near 8 month highs.
• JPYCAD is up 0.30% trading between 0.00875 and 0.00879 – near 33 year lows.
• Gold is down 1.50% trading between $4,122 - $4,210USD/oz – near 7 month lows.
• Silver is down 1.80% trading between $63.32 - $65.75USD/oz – near 6 month lows.
• Oil (WTI crude) is up 0.75% trading between $72.92 and $76.67 – near 4 month lows.