Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 8, 2026
July 8, 2026
USDCAD is falling on Wednesday morning, down 35 pips on the day as a dramatic re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict sends risk assets tumbling and oil surging, creating a complex and volatile backdrop for the Canadian dollar.
Spot Rates
- USDCAD spot rate: 1.4165 - 1.4170 (as at 7:45am PST)
- Asia: 1.4160 to 1.4210
- Europe: 1.4155 To 1.4190
- North America: 1.4165 to 1.4188
Technical Support / Resistance:
- S2 1.4080
- S1 1.4150
- R1 1.4220
- R2 1.4280
Key Economic Data Releases:
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- US FOMC June Meeting Minutes: due 11:00am PST
- US Wholesale Inventories (May)
Important events we're watching this week:
- July 9, USA, US Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate
- July 10, Canada, Canada Employment (Jun)
- July 11, USA, US Initial Jobless Claims / PPI (Jun)
Market Sportlight
USDCAD is falling on Wednesday morning, down 35 pips on the day as a dramatic re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict sends risk assets tumbling and oil surging, creating a complex and volatile backdrop for the Canadian dollar. Trump declared the June ceasefire agreement ‘over’ at the NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday, saying ‘I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum’. The US military confirmed it had launched a series of powerful strikes against Iran after Tehran attacked three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which the US called ‘a clear violation of the ceasefire’. Trump later Wednesday threatened to hit them hard and the Treasury revoked a licence that had allowed Iran to export oil globally - a significant escalation of economic pressure.
WTI crude is surging 7.16% to near $75.41, with Brent up 7.5% near $79.65 as the Strait of Hormuz closure risk returns to the market. The oil spike is a double-edged sword for USDCAD: it supports the CAD as a commodity currency but simultaneously reignites inflation concerns that strengthen the Fed's case for a rate hike - a net USD tailwind. The TSX is down 1.19% as energy-sector gains are overwhelmed by broad risk-off selling. The Dow Jones has shed 1.2% as equities reprice the renewed geopolitical risk premium. Bets on a Fed rate hike have intensified, with CME FedWatch now pricing a hike as soon as the October meeting. Adding to today's focus: the FOMC June meeting minutes are due at 11AM PST, which will be parsed closely for clues on how committed the committee is to the tightening cycle under Warsh, and how hawkish the discussion was at the June 17 meeting. Gold is down 1.50% near $4,037 as the renewed USD safe-haven bid pressures precious metals. Looking ahead: US initial jobless claims and PPI for June due Thursday; Canada employment and US nonfarm payrolls due Friday - the jobs data will be the key domestic catalyst for USDCAD direction into next week.
- Currently, the TSX is down 1.19% while the DJIA is down 1.20%.
- EURCAD is down 0.21% trading between 1.6143 and 1.6205.
- GBPCAD is down 0.09% trading between 1.8866 and 1.8965.
- JPYCAD is down 0.40% trading between 0.008709 and 0.008747.
- Gold is down 1.50% trading between $4,037 - $4,134 USD/oz.
- Silver is down 3.35% trading between $57.65 - $61.02 USD/oz.
- Oil (WTI crude) is up 7.16% trading between $71.77 and $75.52.