Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 24, 2026

Spot Rates

• USDCAD spot rate: 1.4088 - 1.4093 (as at 7:30am PST)
• Asia: 1.4068 to 1.4086
• Europe: 1.4066 To 1.4090
• North America: 1.4085 to 1.4115

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.4000
• S1 1.4060
• R1 1.4115
• R2 1.4135

Key Economic Data Releases:

• U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI: 53.8 exp 54.5 prev 53.9
• U.S. S&P global services PMI: 53.6 exp 51 prev 51.2

Important events we're watching next week:

• July 27, USA, Nondefense capital goods orders ex aircraft
• July 28, USA, ADP employment change, housing price index
• July 29, USA, Fed interest rate decision
• July 30, USA, Core PCE price index, GDP annualized Q2
• July 31, Canada, GDP (May)
• July 31, USA, Consumer sentiment index / inflation expectations

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.4090 down to 1.4059 before rebounding to test the 1.4100 level. After briefly testing the 1.4100 level, the pairing dropped back to hold near 1.4080 for the balance of the session. Oil prices jumped nearly 8% as the U.S. – Iran conflict escalated further. Since falling to 4 month lows earlier this month, oil prices have surged nearly 40%. The USD trade-weighted index lost 0.25% during the Asia-Pacific session before rebounding by 0.50% during the London and NA sessions towards 16 month highs. Overnight, USDCAD held within a 1,4066 – 1.4090 range before briefly testing 1.4110/15 this morning. The weekly high seen Tuesday was quickly rejected and the pairing has fallen back towards 1.4085. The USD index is flat on the session so far.

Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% noting “Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike.” The BOC forecasts economic growth to rebound from 0.6% this year to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028. Market pricing indicates two rate hikes to 2.75% by June 2027. Next week, the U.S. Fed will likely hold its key rate @ 3.75% noting recent soft inflation reports. However, oil prices have surged 40% in recent weeks as the U.S. – Iran conflict escalates and markets are pricing in a 35.8% chance of a rate hike. Looking out to July 2027, the market is pricing in a 33.2% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. There is a 26.3% chance of three rate hikes to 4.50%, and a 20.9% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%.

• Currently, the TSX is up 0.40% - still near all-time highs. The DJIA is up 0.20% near 1 month lows.
• The S&P500 is flat while the NASDAQ is down 0.55% near 3 month lows.
• EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.6011 and 1.6045 – within 1 cent of a 4 month low.
• GBPCAD is up 0.15% trading between 1.8723 and 1.8788 – near 5 week lows.
• JPYCAD is flat trading between 0.00858 and 0.00861 – near 33 year lows.
• Gold is up 0.25% trading between $4,021 - $4,070USD/oz – near 9 month lows.
• Silver is up 1% trading between $57.07 - $58.64USD/oz – near 8 month lows.
• Oil (WTI crude) is down 2.85% trading between $88.76 and $92.78 – near 2 month highs.