Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 17, 2026

Spot Rates:

• USDCAD spot rate: 1.4007 - 1.4012 (as at 7:21am PST)
• Asia: 1.4029 to 1.4041
• Europe: 1.4020 To 1.4040
• North America: 1.4007 to 1.4028

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.3950
• S1 1.4000
• R1 1.4040
• R2 1.4070

Key Economic Data Releases:

• Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities: $22.27 billion prev $111.37 billion
• Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities: $7.9 billion exp $15.21 billion prev $46.92 billion
• U.S. industrial production: 0.1% exp 0.2% prev 0.1%
• U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index: 54.4 exp 51 prev 49.5
• UoM consumer inflation expectations 1 year: 4.2% prev 4.6% 5 year: 3.3% prev 3.3%

Important events we're watching next week:

• July 20, Canada, CPI, BoC CPI Core
• July 21, USA, ADP employment change 4 week avg
• July 23, Canada, Retail sales (May)
• July 23, USA, Initial jobless claims
• July 24, USA, S&P global manufacturing / services PMI

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped for the 9th consecutive day falling from 1.4050 down to 1.4012 - near 1 month low. The pairing settled near 1.4040 – 1.4055 for the balance of the session. The USD trade-weighted index rebounded by 0.35% - still near 1 month lows.

Overnight, USDCAD held within a 1,4020 – 1.4041 range as oil prices jumped as the U.S. – Iran conflict intensified. The downtrend has resumed this morning with USDCAD falling towards 1.40 – fresh 1 month lows. The CAD is the best performing currency on the day and week while the USD index is flat.

This week, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% noting “Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike.” The BOC forecasts economic growth to rebound from 0.6% this year to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028. Market pricing indicates two rate hikes to 2.75% by June 2027. Last month, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75% but was surprisingly hawkish. The market initially repriced interest rate hike probabilities higher but weaker than expected data over the past month has led U.S. yields lower. Looking out to July 2027, the market is pricing in a 36% chance of just one rate hike to 4.00% - down from the three rate hikes indicated at the June FOMC meeting There is a 28.8% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%, and an 18.6% chance of rates remaining on hold @ 3.75%.

• Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are flat on the day.
• The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 0.58% and 1.17% respectively.
• EURCAD is down 0.25% trading between 1.6012 and 1.6069 – near 2 month lows.
• GBPCAD is down 0.43% trading between 1.8825 and 1.8925 – near a 3 week low.
• JPYCAD is down 0.22% trading between 0.00862 and 0.00865 – near 33 year lows.
• Gold is up 0.57% trading between $3,962 - $4,006USD/oz – near 9 month lows.
• Silver is up 0.38% trading between $54.80 - $55.95USD/oz – near 8 month lows.
• Oil (WTI crude) is up 1.50% trading between $78 and $81.21 – near 1 month highs.