Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 15, 2026
July 15, 2026
USDCAD is little changed on Wednesday morning, trading near 1.4050 at 8AM PST, as two significant events have effectively offset each other: a dramatically softer-than-expected US CPI print and a sixth consecutive Bank of Canada hold that came with a mildly dovish tone.
Spot Rates:
- USDCAD spot rate: 1.4050 - 1.4055 (as at 7:55 am PST)
- Asia: 1.4040 to 1.4060
- Europe: 1.4040 To 1.4070
- North America: 1.4045 to 1.4070
Technical Support / Resistance:
- S2 1.3950
- S1 1.4000
- R1 1.4080
- R2 1.4150
Key Economic Data Releases:
- Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Hold at 2.25% - 6th consecutive hold
- BoC MPR: 2026 GDP revised to 0.7% from 1.2%
Important events we're watching this week:
- July 16, Canada, Canada housing starts
- July 16, USA, US retail sales / Empire State Mfg
- July 17, Canada, Canada manufacturing sales
- July 17, USA, US industrial production
Market Spotlight
USDCAD is little changed on Wednesday morning, trading near 1.4050 at 8AM PST, as two significant events have effectively offset each other: a dramatically softer-than-expected US CPI print and a sixth consecutive Bank of Canada hold that came with a mildly dovish tone. Yesterday morning’s US CPI for June came in at 3.5% year-over-year - well below the 3.8% consensus and down sharply from May’s 4.2% - confirming that the energy-driven inflation surge triggered by the Iran war has peaked and is now unwinding rapidly as oil prices normalize following the June 11 peace deal. Core CPI was flat, and the YoY core rate slowed to 2.6% from 2.8% - the lowest core reading since March 2023. The soft CPI print has caused markets to dramatically reprice Fed expectations, the probability of a September hike has collapsed from above 60% earlier this week to below 30%, providing a meaningful headwind for the USD and explaining why USDCAD has pulled back sharply from its overnight high of 1.4130.
On the domestic front, this morning the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive time this morning as expected. The BoC raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.3%, but said inflation should remain near the midpoint of its 1-3% target range over the next two years. Notably, the BoC dropped references to possible future consecutive hikes, which markets have interpreted as mildly dovish, keeping rate hike odds for Canada low. The CAD net short position in futures markets stood at $12.2 billion as of July 7, the highest since late 2024, meaning any shift toward a more optimistic domestic outlook could trigger sharp short-covering rallies in the loonie. Looking ahead: Canada housing starts and US retail sales due Thursday; Canada manufacturing sales and US industrial production Friday. The next major catalyst for USDCAD will be the Fed’s July 29 decision, where the soft June CPI significantly reduces the probability of a hike.
- Currently, the TSX is up 0.33% while the DJIA futures are up 0.45%.
- EURCAD is up 0.12% trading between 1.6046 and 1.6081.
- GBPCAD is up 0.51% trading between 1.8816 and 1.8922.
- JPYCAD is up 0.23% trading between 0.008651 and 0.008688.
- Gold is up 0.24% trading between $4,017 - $4,074 USD/oz.
- Silver is down 1.04% trading between $57.78 - $59.06 USD/oz.
- Oil (WTI crude) is down 0.03% trading between $79.25 and $80.91.