Daily Foreign Exchange Update for July 10, 2026

Spot Rates:

• USDCAD spot rate: 1.4152 - 1.4157 (as at 7:53am PST)
• Asia: 1.4136 to 1.4172
• Europe: 1.4147 To 1.4172
• North America: 1.4144 to 1.4169

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.4100
• S1 1.4140
• R1 1.4190
• R2 1.4240

Key Economic Data Releases:

• Canada net change in employment (June): 18,200 exp 10,000 prev 87,800
• Canada unemployment rate: 6.5% exp 6.6% prev 6.6%
• Canada average hourly wages y/y: 3.7% prev 3.2%

Important events we're watching next week:

• July 14, USA, CPI
• July 15, Canada, BOC interest rate
• July 15, USA, Producer price index
• July 16, USA, Retail sales
• July 17, USA, Industrial production, consumer sentiment index

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD tested 3 week lows @ 1.4155 before briefly climbing to 1.4189. The pairing then dropped back to hold within a 1.4160/72 range for the balance of the session. USD index was flat holding near 1 week lows.

Overnight, the JPY strengthened with USDJPY falling 1 yen from near 40 year highs after comments from Japan’s Finance Minister about boosting domestic investment. The broad-based USD weakness took USDCAD down to 1.4136 – its lowest level since June 18th. The pairing bounced back up towards session highs @ 1.4172 ahead of the Canadian jobs report. The data was better than expected sending USDCAD back down towards the 1.4144 level. The USD index initially dropped 0.35% to its lowest level since June 18th but has since rebounded and is now flat on the day.

Last month, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% noting the economy was weaker than expected in Q1 with growth looking to rebound in the coming quarters. There were recession concerns but last week’s strong GDP reading for April (0.5% vs -0.1% in March) has erased those fears. Also, we’ve seen two consecutive solid employment reports with the employment rate for workers aged 25 – 54 back up towards 2024 levels. Market pricing indicates two rate hikes to 2.75% by June 2027. Last month, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75% but was surprisingly hawkish. The market initially repriced interest rate hike probabilities higher but weaker than expected data over the past month has led U.S. yields lower. Looking out to July 2027, the market is pricing in a 31.3% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%, a 30.9% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%, and a 14.2% chance of rates remaining on hold @ 3.75%.

• Currently, the TSX is up 0.26% while the DJIA is down 0.10%.
• The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 0.1% and 0.30% respectively.
• EURCAD is down 0.12% trading between 1.6154 and 1.6207 – near 2 week lows from 5 month highs seen earlier this week.
• GBPCAD is down 0.10% trading between 1.8973 and 1.9035 – near 10 year highs.
• JPYCAD is up 0.26% trading between 0.00872 and 0.00877 – near 33 year lows.
• Gold has fallen from near 3 week highs - down 0.43% trading between $4,087 - $4,134USD/oz.
• Silver has fallen from near 3 week highs – down 0.21% trading between $59.30 - $60.71USD/oz.
• Oil (WTI crude) has fallen from 3 week highs - down 0.35% trading between $71.22 and $72.81.